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Forecasting pell program applications using structural aggregate models
ARTICLE

Economics of Education Review Volume 14, Number 4 ISSN 0272-7757 Publisher: Elsevier Ltd

Abstract

Demand for postsecondary financial aid offered under the Pell Grant program has proved notoriously difficult to predict in recent years. The U.S. Department of Education maintains a microsimulation model to generate forecasts of applications, but the data requirements of this model are fairly severe and the results subject to considerable error, at least in some years. This paper proposes an alternative model for predicting Pell program applications that uses aggregate data, yet avoids some of the limitations of simple linear models. Using the moments of the aggregate income distribution and other macrovariables, this model empirically performs no worse on average than the microsimulation model, and better in some periods. [JEL I21, I28, C53]

Citation

Cavin, E.S. Forecasting pell program applications using structural aggregate models. Economics of Education Review, 14(4), 385-394. Elsevier Ltd. Retrieved December 5, 2020 from .

This record was imported from Economics of Education Review on February 1, 2019. Economics of Education Review is a publication of Elsevier.

Full text is availabe on Science Direct: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0272-7757(95)00020-K